A bank economist cut Canada's housing forecast, expecting home sales to ↓~5% in 2026 as higher government bond yields keep fixed mortgage costs elevated.
Avg. Canadian home prices are projected to stay roughly flat in 2026, then edge up by <2% in 2027 rather than rebound sharply.
The revised outlook kept 5-yr Canada bond yields near the mid-3% range through Late-Q4, with a gradual decline expected across 2027 overall.
Ontario and British Columbia were expected to see sales improve in 2027, while Alberta was expected to lead Canadian price growth overall.
The modest recovery depended on bond yields starting to ease in Late-Q4, alongside the central bank holding policy steady through 2027 overall.

Canadian borrowers could continue facing affordability pressure as borrowing costs remain elevated and economic uncertainty shapes the housing market.
Rate relief could improve affordability, but its impact will depend on inflation, economic conditions, and the Bank of Canada’s policy path.
Buyers may remain cautious, while higher financing costs continue influencing purchasing power, refinancing decisions, and overall housing demand.
For borrowers and investors, planning around current financing conditions remains important rather than relying entirely on future rate declines.

In Late-Q3, Windsor-Essex home sales totaled 357, down from 433 a year earlier, a yearly change of ↓~18% that signaled a slower pace.
New listings also eased in Late-Q3, with 1,104 properties added versus 1,307 a year earlier, a yearly shift of ↓~13% across Windsor-Essex.
Avg. home price moved to ~$561K in Late-Q3 from ~$584K a year earlier, marking a yearly change of ↓~4% for Windsor-Essex overall.
The local market cooled on both activity and pricing, with fewer sales, fewer listings, and lower avg. values shaping a more measured Late-Q3 pace.
When the local REALTOR® association published these figures, 1,289 properties were on the market, underscoring available inventory even as Windsor-Essex activity softened.

Experts said Canada had taken small steps forward, with affordability improving in key markets, yet overall progress still fell short of solving supply challenges.
Canada has been building ~250K homes yearly, but restoring affordability and closing the backlog required ~400K to 470K new homes each year.
Over the past decade, population growth outpaced housing production, leaving a deficit that could not be erased quickly even if construction activity accelerated.
Public frustration stayed high: ~80% of Canadians said housing was not functioning properly, and ~75% felt too few homes were being built.
Looking ahead, pent-up demand could emerge when confidence improves, and housing was expected to remain a major political issue across Canada for voters.

Canada’s trade dispute with the US was adding pressure across housing and mortgages, from borrowing costs and construction expenses to weaker near-term demand.
An economist estimated ~50% tariffs on selected exports could cost Canada ~90K jobs, with Ontario and Quebec expected to feel the biggest effects.
A bank projected tariffs could trim Canada’s GDP by <0.5% and lift inflation similarly, a mix seen keeping the central bank sidelined.
Rising bond yields pushed fixed mortgage rates higher recently, while more borrowers turned to shorter-term and variable options as lenders watched vulnerable sectors.
Counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum were expected to raise building and renovation costs, slow new construction, and make mortgage advice more valuable for homeowners.

A bank economist sharply cut Canada’s resale outlook, shifting from a much smaller forecast decline earlier in 2026 as bond yields climbed.
National home sales are projected to ↓~5% this year, while avg. prices are expected to finish flat before a modest 2027 gain.
The outlook assumed the central bank would stay on hold near 2%, but modest next-year gains depended on bond yields easing in current Q4.
Support for a recovery also hinged on pent-up demand and a slowly improving job market, though the labour outlook was trimmed after trade tensions.
Even under the baseline, next-year sales were expected to remain well below pre-pandemic levels, showing how elevated yields could extend Canada’s slower reset.

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